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Tianjin Port (600717.SS):Earnings Are Troughing Out

发布时间:2010-04-12    研究机构:花旗环球金融

2009 reported NP Rmb644m (EPS Rmb0.38), -32% YoY — We project 2010E NPfor Tianjin Port (TJPL) to grow 36% to Rmb878m, although still 7% shy of the2008 peak, with risk to the upside should new berths deliver a quicker recoverypace as a result of high gearing. New container and coal terminals resulted inRmb99m losses to TJPL in 2009, and management believes these berths couldturn profitable in 2010. Maintain Buy with a target price lowered to HK$14.7 (fromHK$15.9), based on 28x 2010E EPS (prev. 2009E), benchmarked to A-sharelisted Chinese terminals, and also incorporating our lowered earnings (by 11%-16% for FY10E-11E) on larger cost base.

v What drove the Rmb298m decline in 2009 NP? — 1) TJ Port’s revenue declinedby 13% due to a 3.9% decline in cargo throughput (container +8.7%, bulk -5%, inwhich ore throughput soared 40%, oil grew 8%, but coal fell 34% due tocontracting coke coal export). 2) Container ASP fell 12% while bulk ASP wasresilient. 3) Port-related ancillary revenue decreased by 17%. Ramping-up TJPacific Container Terminal (BGC-III) incurred Rmb-51m stake-adjusted losses,followed by Rmb-34m from China Coal-Huaneng Coal Terminal and Rmb-14mfrom Shenhua Coal Terminal. Port handling accounted for 57% of 2009 profits. 4)Finance cost and D&A were Rmb129m higher than in 2008.

v 2010 guidance — TJPL targets 5% total throughput growth to 400m tons in 2010,driven by 15% container growth to 10m TEU (1Q10 +13%), significantly rising oil(2M10 +31%), bottoming-out coal(2M10 +21%), and stable iron ore (2M1017%). ASP is expected to recover but may not be able to reach the 2008-level.

Capex guidance is Rmb2bn. Our 2010-11E net profits are in-line with consensus.

v 32% YoY drop in 2009 NP was in-line with port peers — By comparison, DalianPort’s 2009 NP of Rmb609m fell by 22%, CMHI’s NP of HK$3.2bn was down12.6%, Cosco Pac’s NP dropped 31%, DP World’s NP of US$296m was 52% lessthan 2008, and PSA’s NP in 2009 fell 6.1% YoY to US$697m.

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